Mark Curtis, the former KTVU political guru (now reporting in West Virginia TV) checks in with 415 Media for his presidential election pick:"Hillary (Clinton) wins Electoral College 273 to 265. Republicans hold control of US Senate, 52-48; GOP will have a net loss in House, but maintain solid control. Federal Court appointments, including Supreme Court, will be tough to get through the Senate, and will have to be more moderate than Clinton would like. House will press more investigations --some members even calling for impeachment--which won't happen. Forecast: four years of gridlock, and out."
Curtis will be working as a Facebook correspondent in West Virginia --in addition to his TV/Radio work. A plumb assignment ...I asked him what we should be looking at early on as the election closes in the East.
"Watch Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Trump MUST win all three, if not, it's over. Also, if Trump loses NC, the GOP likely loses that Senate seat and perhaps control of the Senate too. The three KEY states are now NC, New Hampshire and Colorado."
Four years ago, Mark Curtis predicted a Romney win. PUndits get it wrong all the time and Mark is a good guy. That said, I predict Hillary crushes the orange loser who will then go into hiding. The dems will take the senate and Hillary's SCUS nominees will be confirmed. House stays republican.
ReplyDeleteOpinions are like assholes, thanks for your opinion 8:36.
DeleteWow, he's really going out on a limb there. In his other predictions it will "rain somewhere" and there will be "heavy traffic on the Bay Bridge during commute hours".
ReplyDeleteI don't know why people try to predict this sort of stuff any more than why they try to predict the Dow and NASDAQ. They're rarely right, but it never stops them.
ReplyDeleteI'll predict the winner right now: Hillary by 4.3% and she'll get at least 300 electoral votes. That was easy.
DeleteHi this is Mark Curtis.
ReplyDeleteI have refuted this before. I never said Mitt Romney would win in 2012 (in fact I predicted the opposite. What I laid out in my election prediction that year was a "path" for him to win, not a prediction. Here is a link to my blog from 11/4/2012:
http://markcurtismedia.com/blogs/mark-curtis/2012/nov/04/sunday-political-brunch-november-4-2012
In case you just want the exact paragraph, here it is:
“'Four More Years” – By my tally, President Obama will be reelected with 277 Electoral College votes to 261 for Mitt Romney. The deciding states are Ohio and Wisconsin, both of which I am calling for Obama. But, if Romney wins either one (he doesn’t need both), then Romney wins the White House. I am giving Romney Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina, all states Obama won in 2008. But it’s just not enough for the former Massachusetts Governor. Still, he may win the popular vote a la Gore v. Bush in 2000."
Thanks for reading!
Mark
Many Bay Area viewers like me miss your reporting at KTVU. I am glad that your are reporting politics. Fox2 here is awful and quickly getting worse.
Delete"Watch Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio."
ReplyDelete...
"The three KEY states are now NC, New Hampshire and Colorado."
WAT?
It was always about Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. I wasn't surprised in the least.
DeleteWhen the history of this race is written, it will be said the Amish and Mennonites in central Pennsylvania were the ones who put Trump over the top. The state is always close but I heard from a cousin there that lines to vote were miles long and people had volunteered in droves to drive the Amish to the polls. That's what did it.
What a year. Between Trump,Hillary and Bernie,it was pick who you think will live to finish a term.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark, I guess you don't know as much as you think!!e
ReplyDeleteYes, ultimately I picked the wrong winner, but I was very close on this. (I don't know many pundits who got it right).
DeleteI only picked three states wrong: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. (New Hampshire and Michigan are still waiting). Even if I got both of those wrong I'm still at 90% correct.
My Senate pick of a 52-48 GOP majority is right on the money.
My record is not perfect in the 10 Presidential Elections I've covered, but it's pretty respectable!
My pick of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida determining successive races has never been wrong...especially Ohio. If you can't carry Ohio, you can't win. That was more true on Tuesday than it has ever been. 2020 will be the same way since new figures from the census won't be available until at least 2022. Get used to these guys. They're gonna be there for awhile.
DeleteDid you know the race was called before votes were counted here? Why? Pennsylvania. He won all three and as I've told you many times...that's all she wrote.
OOPS... wrong.
ReplyDeleteIs that Mount Rushmore in the background? He may have been wrong, but at least he put in the work to make a prediction. Wish he were still here in the Bay Area.
ReplyDeleteYes it is! That was 2008 when I was covering the South Dakota primary. What a COOL place!
DeleteThanks,
Mark Curtis
Something Weird, & Strange when on with the Polling. Trump never lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Yet he won all Three??? When Pennsylvania started counting votes, Hillary surged ahead...then the Polls stopped Counting Votes for her, then all of a sudden Trump started surging...
ReplyDeleteIdk, like I said this was weird with the Polling, maybe Trump's Buddy Vladimir helped hack the voting Machines, because in County's in Michigan where Obama won big, Trump won big this time?! Any way Trump will have the backing of the Government to take on his Enemies now, because we all know that he holds Grudges...This is truly a sad day for our Country, where a Reality Star can run the most Powerful Country in the World.
Lots of people came forward at the last minute to vote for Trump after his inspiring messages the last couple of days, messages seen by hundreds of thousands only on youtube...the mainstream media would never show them to you. It's a new day. We can see everything now, without censorship.
DeleteUn-Fuck-ing Believable...God Bless Our Country going forward...This Man is a Disgrace, & Certified a Crazy Man!
ReplyDelete1:57 AM. You can use the word "F*ck" and the word God in the same sentence? Poor phrasing. That doesn't go unnoticed, not even in the Bay Area. Please try again! More graciously this time.
Deletehas the migration to Canada begun, yet?
ReplyDeleteIf we sent Cher, Michael Moore, Samuel Jackson, and Miley Cyrus one way to Toronto, Trudeau would consider it an Act of War and drop (another) bomb on Detroit.
Delete