Stern's return to terrestrial radio? Don't be Sirius; December SF radio ratings; the Sunday 415 pulse

Nice of PBS, via Charlie Rose, to give about 45 minutes of free air time to Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin, who continued to tout the long-term viability of satellite radio.

The extensive interview began with a recap of the merger process and Liberty Media’s rescue of Sirius XM earlier this year. Some discussion ensued in which Karmazin was able to detail the nearly $1 Billion swing to profitability the company realized in 2009 from merger synergies.

Eventually the conversation moved to the status of Howard Stern. Focusing on Stern, Karmazin stated that Howard is a “great partner” while explaining that negotiations have not begun and that Stern’s contract does not expire for another year. Karmazin called Stern “the single-most influential, most successful radio personality in the history of radio.”

What Karmazin failed to center in on: in spite of a short-term revenue burst, thanks to Liberty, the advanced long-term direction of satellite radio is muddled at best, Stern or not.

The bottom line is that satellite radio long ago jumped the shark and its market status proves that point. Karmazin can spout all the numbers he wants, but the bottom line is that terrestrial radio is still the dominant audio domain for most Americans.

Declining US auto sales, the continued recession, and the scaled-back financial commitment from the domestic car companies continue to have long-term reverberations on the satellite radio biz.

Which brings us to Mr. Stern. Despite Howard's repeated insistence that he'd retire before going back to terrestrial, and his millions of fans who back up his stance, fail to acknowledge the obvious simple facts.

Stern's cachet in the modern media mix has gone flat. His daily water-cooler presence has disappeared off the mainstream media radar. It is that constant that made Stern the big star and earned him millions in the broadcast business. But four years lost in the satellite shuffle has had a mostly negative impact on his wildly popular content.

His fans who listen to him on satellite, (like me) might not care, (I do) but for a majority of those who either don't have satellite, won't pay for it, or in this economy, can't afford it, Stern is nothing more than a rumor.

Stern has all the money in the world and doesn't have to work another day. He could simply retire and at age 55, walk away. Again, in THIS instance, it isn't about the money.

Stern has privately explored the possibility of returning to terrestrial radio. His agent, Don Buchwald, has had quiet conversations at some of Manhattan's best restaurants with execs from both CBS/Infinity and Jones broadcasting. You can call it positioning, negotiating ploys, whatever--I call it a sign that Stern is looking at the landscape and wants back in on the audio nirvana he has lost since January, 2006. Doubts? Just pay attention and stay tuned.

**SF Bay Area radio ratings: The December 2009 ratings are out...KGO still on top; KCBS, KOIT move; KQED-FM bolts up big time; KNBR falls flat; KSFO too.

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